The effect of adaptive mobility policy to the spread of COVID-19 in urban environment: intervention analysis of Seoul, South Korea

TL;DR

This study analyzes how adaptive mobility policies in Seoul affected COVID-19 spread, showing voluntary mobility reductions and shifts to private transport before case peaks, emphasizing flexible strategies' importance.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of adaptive mobility restrictions and their timing in controlling COVID-19 in an urban setting.

Findings

Mobility reduced two weeks before case peak

Shift from public transit to private vehicles

Simultaneous changes in epidemiology, mobility, and policy

Abstract

Although severe mobility restrictions are recognized as the key enabler to contain COVID-19, there has been few scientific studies to validate such approach, especially in urban context. This study analyzes mobility pattern changes in Seoul, South Korea that adopted adaptive approach toward mobility. Intervention analyses reveal that major mobility reduction did occur two weeks before the city's case peak. Such voluntary adjustments exhibit strong preference shift toward private mode from public transit. Large reductions occurred in non-essential and high-contact activities of shopping and dining, while work and Starbucks trips were less affected. The collective evaluation reveal that major changes in epidemiology, mobility and policy occurred simultaneously, with no lagging nor leading contributors. Our study demonstrates that collective understanding the mutual aspects among mobility, epidemiology and policy is essential. Incremental and flexible mobility restriction is not only possible but necessary, especially for a pandemic of extensive spatial and temporal scales.