A specifically designed machine learning algorithm for GNSS position time series prediction and its applications in outlier and anomaly detection and earthquake prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel supervised machine learning algorithm tailored for GNSS position time series prediction, demonstrating superior accuracy and speed, with applications in outlier detection and earthquake prediction, including a case study on the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.

Contribution

The paper presents a new machine learning algorithm specifically designed for GNSS time series analysis, outperforming existing methods in accuracy and speed, and applicable to outlier detection and earthquake forecasting.

Findings

The proposed algorithm is approximately 3.22% more accurate in outlier detection.

It can predict the Tohoku earthquake about 2 hours before occurrence.

The algorithm outperforms 17 other machine learning methods and the Theta statistical method.

Abstract

We present a simple yet efficient supervised machine learning algorithm that is designed for the GNSS position time series prediction. This algorithm has four steps. First, the mean value of the time series is subtracted from it. Second, the trends in the time series are removed. Third, wavelets are used to separate the high and low frequencies. And fourth, a number of frequencies are derived and used for finding the weights between the hidden and the output layers, using the product of the identity and sine and cosine functions. The role of the observation precision is taken into account in this algorithm. A large-scale study of three thousand position times series of GNSS stations across the globe is presented. Seventeen different machine learning algorithms are examined. The accuracy levels of these algorithms are checked against the rigorous statistical method of Theta. It is shown that the most accurate machine learning algorithm is the method we present, in addition to being faster. Two applications of the algorithm are presented. In the first application, it is shown that the outliers and anomalies in a time series can be detected and removed by the proposed algorithm. In a large scale study, ten other methods of time series outlier detection are compared with the proposed algorithm. The study reveals that the proposed algorithm is approximately 3.22 percent more accurate in detecting outliers. In the second application, the suitability of the algorithm for earthquake prediction is investigated. A case study is presented for the Tohoku 2011 earthquake. It is shown that this earthquake could have been predicted approximately 2 hours before its happening, solely based on each of the 845 GEONET station time series. Comparison with four different studies show the improvement in prediction of the time of the earthquake.