Multimodal fusion for sea level anomaly forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces MMFnet, a multimodal deep learning approach that fuses remote sensing and in-situ data for accurate multi-step sea level anomaly forecasting in the South China Sea, outperforming existing models.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel multimodal fusion framework combining ConvLSTM and EEMD-LSTM networks with data assimilation for improved SLA forecasting.

Findings

MMFnet achieves lower RMSE and higher anomaly correlation than state-of-the-art models.

Adding CCMP SCAT and OISST data extends forecast range beyond a week.

The model performs well in both South China Sea and North Pacific Ocean contexts.

Abstract

The accumulated remote sensing data of altimeters and scatterometers have provided a new opportunity to forecast the ocean states and improve the knowledge in ocean/atmosphere exchanges. Few previous studies have focused on sea level anomaly (SLA) multi-step forecasting by multivariate deep learning for different modalities. For this paper, a novel multimodal fusion approach named MMFnet is used for SLA multi-step forecasting in South China Sea (SCS). First, a grid forecasting network is trained by an improved Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network on daily multiple remote sensing data from 1993 to 2016. Then, an in-situ forecasting network is trained by an improved LSTM network, which is decomposed by the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD-LSTM), on real-time, in-situ and remote sensing data. Finally, the two single-modal networks are fused by an ocean data assimilation scheme. During the test period from 2017 to 2019, the average RMSE of the MMFnet (single-modal ConvLSTM) is 4.03 cm (4.51 cm), the 15th-day anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.78 (0.67), the performance of MMFnet is much higher than those of current state-of-the-art dynamical (HYCOM) and statistical (ConvLSTM, Persistence and daily Climatology) forecasting systems. Sensitivity experiments analysis indicates that, the MMFnet, which added CCMP SCAT products and OISST for SLA forecasting, has improved the forecast range over a week and can effectively produce 15-day SLA forecasting with reasonable accuracies.In an extension of the validation over the North Pacific Ocean, MMFnet can calculate the forecasting results in a few minutes, and we find good agreement in amplitude and distribution of SLA variability between MMFnet and other classical operational model products.