The Epidemic-Driven Collapse in a System with Limited Economic Resource

TL;DR

This paper models how an epidemic can cause socioeconomic collapse in a system with limited resources, showing that resource constraints can lead to irreversible collapse, which can be mitigated by negative resource or debt.

Contribution

It introduces a novel dynamical model linking epidemic spread with economic resource depletion, revealing collapse mechanisms due to resource limitations.

Findings

Epidemic-resource coupling can cause system collapse opposite to thermal explosion.

Limited resources prevent system stabilization after epidemic outbreaks.

Negative resource or debt can partially mitigate collapse effects.

Abstract

We consider a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic in a basic dynamical model with negative feedback between the infected population size and a formal collective economic resource. The epidemic-resource coupling is supposed to be of activation type, with the recovery rate governed by the Arrhenius-like law and resource playing the role of temperature. Such a coupling can result in the collapsing effect opposite to thermal explosion because of the limited resource. In this case, the system can no longer stabilize and return to the stable pre- or post-epidemic states. We demonstrate that such a collapse can partially be mitigated by means of a negative resource or debt.