Stochastic approach to study control strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in India

TL;DR

This paper uses a stochastic SEQIR model to analyze the impact of quarantine and social distancing in controlling Covid-19 in India, emphasizing early and sustained interventions for effective pandemic management.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic modeling framework to evaluate control strategies for Covid-19, highlighting the importance of early and continuous quarantine and social distancing measures.

Findings

Early quarantine and social distancing are crucial for control.

Demographic stochasticity significantly influences pandemic dynamics.

Sustained social discipline is necessary till the pandemic ends.

Abstract

India is one of the worst affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. We studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analyzed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing within the stochastic framework of the SEQIR model to illustrate the controlling strategy of the pandemic. Our simulation results clearly show that proper quarantine and social distancing should be maintained from an early time just at the start of the pandemic and should be continued till its end to effectively control the pandemic. This calls for a more socially disciplined lifestyle in this perspective in future. The demographic stochasticity, which is quite visible in the system dynamics, has a critical role in regulating and controlling the pandemic.