Modeling and Simulation of COVID-19 Pandemic for Cincinnati Tri-State Area

TL;DR

This paper employs an SIR model to simulate COVID-19 spread in Cincinnati, incorporating population movement and behaviors, revealing potential second waves and infection surges due to quarantine, work return, and panic buying.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed simulation of COVID-19 dynamics in Cincinnati considering movement patterns and behavioral responses, providing insights into pandemic peaks.

Findings

Second wave of infections predicted upon return to work.

Significant infection increase due to panic buying.

Model highlights impact of quarantine measures.

Abstract

In this paper, we use SIR model to simulate the COVID-19 pandemic for Cincinnati Tri-State Area. We have built a representative population of Cincinnati that includes movements for traveling to stores, schools, workplaces, and traveling to friends houses. Using this model, we simulate the effect of quarantine, return to work, and panic buying. We show that that there will be a second wave of infections when people return to work and significant increase in number of infections when there is panic buying at stores with the announcement of the quarantine measures.