Atmospheric CO$_2$ and total electricity production before and during the nation-wide restriction of activities as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic

TL;DR

This study analyzes the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on atmospheric CO₂ levels and electricity production, revealing short-term reductions linked to decreased energy demand and highlighting China's significant role in CO₂ fluctuations.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence of how COVID-19 restrictions affected atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and electricity production, emphasizing the short-term impact of reduced energy consumption on CO₂ levels.

Findings

Electricity production shrank by about 9.20% during COVID-19 restrictions.

Atmospheric CO₂ decreased by approximately 1.79% in early 2020.

Short-term atmospheric CO₂ reductions are significantly linked to decreased electricity from combustible sources.

Abstract

In this paper, we analysed real-time measurements of atmospheric CO$_2$ with total electricity production and nation-wide restrictions phases due to the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic, and its effects on atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations. A decline of 3.7% in the global energy demand at about 150 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in the first quarter (Q1), of 2020 was recorded, as compared to the same first quarter (Q1), of 2019, due to the cutback on global economic activities. Our results showed that: 1) electricity production for the same period in the years 2018, 2019, and 2020, shrunk at an offset of about 9.20%, which resulted in the modest reduction of about (-1.79%), in the atmospheric CO$_2$, to that of 2017-2018 CO$_2$ level; 2) a non-seasonal abrupt; but brief, atmospheric CO$_2$ decrease by about 0.85% in mid-February 2020, could be due to the Phase 1 movement restrictions in China. The results showed that, the reduction in electricity production is significant to the short-term variability of atmospheric CO$_2$. It also highlights the significant contributions from China to the atmospheric CO$_2$, which suggests that, without the national restriction of activities, CO$_2$ concentration are set to exceed 2019 by 1.79%, but it quickly decreased due to the lockdown, and sustained the reduction for two consecutive months. The results underscore the atmospheric CO$_2$ reductions on the monthly time scale that can be achieved, if electricity production from combustible sources were slashed, which could be useful for cost-benefit analyses of the reduction in electricity production from combustible sources, and the impact of these reduction to the atmospheric CO$_2$.