Why Monday never wins -- An Example of the Secretary Problem

TL;DR

This paper examines the influence of performance order and scoring biases in a competitive TV show, comparing it to the secretary problem to understand optimal stopping and decision-making strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed analysis of scoring biases and performance order effects in a real-world competition, linking findings to the secretary problem model.

Findings

Winning probability depends on performance position.

Positive bias exists after contestants finish cooking.

Similarities found between show dynamics and secretary problem strategies.

Abstract

We analyzed the winning statistics of the German TV show 'Das Perfekte Dinner', a competition where the contestants rate each other. We did a comparison of the original and the celebrity version of the show and also implemented a rescaling of the points to reduce the influences of subjective grading. We found that there is a strong dependency of the winning rate on the position of performing, not only for the first, but for all candidates. Furthermore, we concluded that there is a positive bias in giving points, after the contestants have already cooked. The comparison with a simpler optimizing strategy, the so called secretary problem, showed a lot of similarities.