A reproduction rate which perfectly fits Covid-19

TL;DR

This paper introduces a straightforward method to compare Covid-19 epidemic development across regions using confirmed case data, deriving a robust, time-varying reproduction rate that accounts for asymptomatic cases without relying on death or testing rates.

Contribution

It proposes a novel, assumption-light technique to estimate a more accurate and consistent Covid-19 reproduction rate from case data alone.

Findings

The method produces more plausible reproduction rate trajectories than official estimates.

It effectively incorporates asymptomatic cases into epidemic modeling.

The approach is robust across different countries and data conditions.

Abstract

We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of Covid-19. We derive a robust time-varying reproduction rate for the infection potential, including asymptomatic cases, which does not depend on death rate or testing intensity. It requires few assumptions and shows a more plausible time course than official reproduction rates in several countries.