Surface Temperature Trend Estimation over 12 Sites in Guinea Using 57 Years of Ground-Based Data

TL;DR

This study analyzes 57 years of ground-based temperature data from 12 sites in Guinea, using the Trend-Run model to identify upward temperature trends and quantify climate forcing contributions, revealing significant warming episodes and the dominant influence of atmospheric oscillations.

Contribution

The paper applies the Trend-Run model to long-term temperature data in Guinea, quantifies climate forcings, and identifies trend turning points, providing new insights into regional climate change patterns.

Findings

Significant upward temperature trends at most sites.

Annual oscillation (AO) is the dominant forcing contribution.

Warming episodes occurred in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

Abstract

Trend-Run model was performed to estimate the trend in surface temperatures recorded at 12 sites in Guinea from 1960 to 2016 and to examine the contribution of each climate forcing. The coefficient of determination (R 2) calculated varies between 0.60 and 0.90, it provides total information about the simulation capability of the model. The decadal trend values also calculated show an upward trend (between 0.04 {\textdegree}C $\pm$ 0.06 {\textdegree}C decade --1 and 0.21 {\textdegree}C $\pm$ 0.06 {\textdegree}C decade --1). In addition, forcings' contributions were quantified, and the annual oscillation (AO) contribution is higher for most of the stations, followed by semiannual oscillation (SAO). Among the forcings, the tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) contribution is greater than that of the sunspot number (SSN), Ni{\~n}o3.4 and Atlantic Ni{\~n}o (AN). Moreover, the Mann-Kendall test revealed a positive significant trend for all stations except at the Macenta site. Additionally, with sequential Mann-Kendall test, trend turning points were found only for the stations of Mamou, Koundara and Macenta at different dates. The temperature anomalies depict warming episodes (1970s, 1980s, 1984 and 1990s). Since then, the temperature is consistently increasing over the country. A significant warming has been shown, which might be further investigated using these models with additional contributing factors.