Saber Pro success prediction model using decision tree based learning

TL;DR

This paper develops a decision tree model to predict student success in Colombia based on socioeconomic and academic factors, providing insights into educational influences and potential policy applications.

Contribution

It introduces a CART decision tree approach to identify key factors influencing student success, highlighting the importance of Saber 11 scores and socioeconomic variables.

Findings

Saber 11 Social Studies score is highly influential.

Gender is less influential than commonly thought.

The model accurately predicts success probabilities.

Abstract

The primary objective of this report is to determine what influences the success rates of students who have studied in Colombia, analyzing the Saber 11, the test done at the last school year, some socioeconomic aspects and comparing the Saber Pro results with the national average. The problem this faces is to find what influences success, but it also provides an insight in the countries education dynamics and predicts one's opportunities to be prosperous. The opposite situation to the one presented in this paper could be the desertion levels, in the sense that by detecting what makes someone outstanding, these factors can say what makes one unsuccessful. The solution proposed to solve this problem was to implement a CART decision tree algorithm that helps to predict the probability that a student has of scoring higher than the mean value, based on different socioeconomic and academic factors, such as the profession of the parents of the subject parents and the results obtained on Saber 11. It was discovered that one of the most influential factors is the score in the Saber 11, on the topic of Social Studies, and that the gender of the subject is not as influential as it is usually portrayed as. The algorithm designed provided significant insight into which factors most affect the probability of success of any given person and if further pursued could be used in many given situations such as deciding which subject in school should be given more intensity to and academic curriculum in general.