Internet search effort on Covid-19 and the underlying public interventions and epidemiological status

TL;DR

This study analyzes how web search effort related to Covid-19 in Greece correlates with epidemiological data and government interventions, revealing strong predictive relationships and insights into public interest during the pandemic.

Contribution

It introduces a machine learning model that predicts web search effort based on epidemiological and intervention variables, highlighting key factors influencing public search behavior.

Findings

Model achieved 91% fit between actual and predicted search effort.

Top predictors included new deaths, border openings, and testing policies.

Web search peaks aligned with Rt peaks, especially during tourist season.

Abstract

Disease spread is a complex phenomenon requiring an interdisciplinary approach. Covid-19 exhibited a global spatial spread in a very short time frame resulting in a global pandemic. Data of web search effort in Greece on Covid-19 as a topic for one year on a weekly temporal scale were analyzed using governmental intervention measures such a s school closures, movement restrictions, national and international travelling restrictions, stay at home requirements, mask requirements, financial support measures, and epidemiological variables such as new cases and new deaths as potential explanatory covariates. The relationship between web search effort on Covid-19 and the 16 in total explanatory covariates was analyzed with machine learning. Web search in time was compared with the corresponding epidemiological situation, expressed by the Rt at the same week. Results indicated that the trained model exhibited a fit of R2 = 91% between the actual and predicted web search effort. The top five variables for predicting web search effort were new deaths, the opening of international borders to non-Greek nationals, new cases, testing policy, and restrictions in internal movements. Web search peaked during the same weeks that the Rt was peaking although new deaths or new cases were not peaking during those dates, and Rt rarely is reported in public media. As both web search effort and Rt peaked during 1-15 August 2020, the peak of the tourist season, the implications of this are discussed.