SEI1I2HRSVM model applied to the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) in Paraguay

TL;DR

This paper introduces a comprehensive mathematical model for COVID-19 in Paraguay, capturing transmission dynamics, environmental factors, and control measures, validated with real data to inform public health strategies.

Contribution

It presents a novel SEI1I2HRSVM model that incorporates multiple transmission pathways, environmental effects, and variable transmission rates for COVID-19.

Findings

Model accurately fits the COVID-19 data in Paraguay

Variable transmission rates reflect control measure impacts

Model can predict future outbreak scenarios

Abstract

In the present article a mathematical model is proposed to research the current coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) in Paraguay, describing the multiple transmission paths in the infection dynamics, following the susceptible, exposed, infectious, hospitalized, with lost immunity and recovered individuals, as well as the role of the virus in the environment and deaths from COVID-19 or other reasons. In order to reflect the impact of the control measures adopted by the government and the population, the model employs variable transmission rates that change with the epidemiological status and environmental conditions. The model is validated, and its application is demonstrated with data publicly available.