Can Efficient Detection and Isolation Control an Epidemic?

TL;DR

This paper quantifies how efficient detection and isolation strategies can reduce the basic reproduction ratio in epidemic models, potentially controlling the spread of diseases like COVID-19.

Contribution

It provides a formal analysis demonstrating that detection and isolation can lower the basic reproduction ratio below one, aiding epidemic control.

Findings

Detection and isolation reduce the basic reproduction ratio.

Effective strategies can bring the ratio below one.

Quantitative analysis of epidemic control methods.

Abstract

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal models of epidemics of varying complexity. A key parameter of such models is the basic reproduction ratio. We show that an effective detection and isolation strategy leads to a reduction of the basic reproduction ratio and can even lead to this ratio becoming lower than one.