WRF-Chem optimization for the estimation of Etna volcanic ash fallout

TL;DR

This study enhances volcanic ash fallout forecasting for Etna by optimizing the WRF-Chem model, demonstrating accurate predictions of ash and SO2 distribution during the December 2015 eruption, aiding airport and stakeholder decision-making.

Contribution

First systematic application of WRF-Chem protocol to a specific Etna eruption, improving forecast accuracy and operational utility for volcanic ash dispersion.

Findings

WRF-Chem accurately reproduces ash and SO2 distribution during the eruption.

Optimized model supports airport closure decisions and public safety measures.

Model outputs align well with satellite, radar, and weather station data.

Abstract

The main aim of the present work is to improve the quality of the Etna volcanic ash fallout forecasts through the optimization of an integrated simulation system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the WRF chemistry (WRF - Chem) module. The proposed approach constitutes the first systematic application of the WRF - Chem based protocol to a specific Etna volcanic eruption, with possible effects involving the whole Mediterranean area. On that score, the attention has been focused on the eruption event, recorded on December 2015 from 3$^rd$ to 7$^th$, which led to the closure of the Catania International Airport. Quantitative meteorological forecasts, analyses of the Etna volcanic ash transport and estimates of the ash ground deposition have been performed. In order to test the performance of the employed approach, the model outputs have been compared with data provided by satellite sensors, Doppler radars and weather stations. As a result, it emerges that, as far as the selected eruption event is concerned, the WRF-Chem model correctly reproduces the distribution of SO$_2$ and of volcanic ash. Therefore, this model may provide a valuable support both to airport managements and to local stakeholders including public administrations.