Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order Modeling Using Uncertainty-Aware Deep Neural Networks and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition: Application to Flood Modeling

TL;DR

This paper develops a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling approach using uncertainty-aware deep neural networks combined with Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, applied to flood prediction, demonstrating improved reliability and uncertainty quantification in complex, real-world scenarios.

Contribution

It introduces a novel combination of POD with Deep Ensembles and Bayesian Neural Networks for uncertainty-aware surrogate modeling in flood prediction tasks.

Findings

Ensemble methods are easier to implement and more flexible for discontinuities.

Both approaches reliably identify out-of-distribution scenarios.

Probabilistic flood maps provide broader, safer predictions.

Abstract

Deep Learning research is advancing at a fantastic rate, and there is much to gain from transferring this knowledge to older fields like Computational Fluid Dynamics in practical engineering contexts. This work compares state-of-the-art methods that address uncertainty quantification in Deep Neural Networks, pushing forward the reduced-order modeling approach of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition-Neural Networks (POD-NN) with Deep Ensembles and Variational Inference-based Bayesian Neural Networks on two-dimensional problems in space. These are first tested on benchmark problems, and then applied to a real-life application: flooding predictions in the Mille \^Iles river in the Montreal, Quebec, Canada metropolitan area. Our setup involves a set of input parameters, with a potentially noisy distribution, and accumulates the simulation data resulting from these parameters. The goal is to build a non-intrusive surrogate model that is able to know when it does not know, which is still an open research area in Neural Networks (and in AI in general). With the help of this model, probabilistic flooding maps are generated, aware of the model uncertainty. These insights on the unknown are also utilized for an uncertainty propagation task, allowing for flooded area predictions that are broader and safer than those made with a regular uncertainty-uninformed surrogate model. Our study of the time-dependent and highly nonlinear case of a dam break is also presented. Both the ensembles and the Bayesian approach lead to reliable results for multiple smooth physical solutions, providing the correct warning when going out-of-distribution. However, the former, referred to as POD-EnsNN, proved much easier to implement and showed greater flexibility than the latter in the case of discontinuities, where standard algorithms may oscillate or fail to converge.