Revisited reference solar proton event of 23-Feb-1956: Assessment of the cosmogenic-isotope method sensitivity to extreme solar events

TL;DR

This study evaluates the sensitivity of cosmogenic-isotope proxy methods to detect extreme solar proton events, revealing that combining multiple records can significantly improve detection capabilities and fill the observational gap in event strength.

Contribution

The paper introduces a new assessment of the proxy method sensitivity, demonstrating that combining isotope records enhances detection of extreme solar events by an order of magnitude.

Findings

Single isotope records are too weak to reliably detect extreme events.

Combining multiple proxy records increases detection sensitivity by 4-5 times.

This approach can expand the known extreme solar event statistics from a few to several tens.

Abstract

Our direct knowledge of solar eruptive events is limited to several decades and does not include extreme events, which can only be studied by the indirect proxy method over millennia, or by a large number of sun-like stars. There is a gap, spanning 1--2 orders of magnitude, in the strength of events between directly observed and reconstructed ones. Here, we study the proxy-method sensitivity to identify extreme solar particle events (SPEs). First, the strongest directly observed SPE (23-Feb-1956), used as a reference for proxy-based reconstructions, was revisited using the newly developed method. Next, the sensitivity of the cosmogenic-isotope method to detect a reference SPE was assessed against the precision and number of individual isotopic records, showing that it is too weak by a factor $\approx$30 to be reliably identified in a single record. Uncertainties of 10Be and 14C data are shown to be dominated by local/regional patterns and measurement errors, respectively. By combining several proxy records, an SPE 4--5 times stronger than the reference one can be potentially detected, increasing the present-day sensitivity by an order of magnitude. This will allow filling the observational gap in SPE strength distribution, thus enriching statistics of extreme events from 3--4 presently known ones to several tens. This will provide a solid basis for research in the field of extreme events, both for fundamental science, viz. solar and stellar physics, and practical applications, such as the risk assessments of severe space-based hazards for the modern technological society.