Controlling the Hidden Growth of COVID-19

TL;DR

This paper estimates the true scale of COVID-19 infections, highlighting that actual cases may be 10-50 times higher than confirmed cases, and emphasizes the importance of matching testing rates to infection rates for control.

Contribution

It introduces a method to estimate hidden infections and clarifies the relationship between testing and infection rates for epidemic control.

Findings

Estimated hidden infections are 10-50 times confirmed cases.

Test rate should match infection rate to prevent outbreaks.

Proposes stratified sampling as a control tool.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the numbers have been generally flattened out. This report tries to estimate the hidden number of currently alive infections in the population by using the confirmed cases. A major result indicates an existing infections estimate at about 10-50 times the daily confirmed new cases, with the stringent social distancing policy tipping to the upper end of this range. It clarifies the relationship between the infection rate and the test rate to put the epidemic under control, which says that the test rate shall keep up at the same pace as infection rate to prevent an outbreak. This relationship is meaningful in the wake of business re-opening in the U.S. and the world. The report also reveals the connections of all the measures taken to the epidemic spread. A stratified sampling method is proposed to add to the current tool kits of epidemic control. Again, this report is a summary of some straight observations and thoughts, not through a thorough study backed with field data. The results appear obvious and suitable for general education to interested policymakers and the public.