Comparing like with like: China ranks first in SCI-indexed research articles since 2018

TL;DR

This study analyzes China's rapid growth in SCI-indexed research publications, predicting it may surpass the USA in total output soon, but the US maintains a lead in research quality and impact.

Contribution

It provides a detailed comparison of China and the USA's scientific publication trends and forecasts future shifts in global research leadership.

Findings

China overtook the USA in original research articles since 2018.

China may become the top SCI-indexed research producer by 2020 or 2021.

The USA maintains a lead in review paper production and overall impact.

Abstract

China's rising in scientific research output is impressive. The academic community is curious about the time when the cross-over in the number of annual scientific publication production between China and the USA can happen. By using Web of Science Core Collection's Science Citation Index Expanded database, this study finds that China still ranks the second in the production of SCI-indexed publications in 2019 but may leapfrog the USA to be the first in 2020 or 2021, if all document types are considered. Comparatively, China has already overtaken the USA and been the largest SCI-indexed original research article producer since 2018. However, China still lags behind the USA regarding the number of review paper production. In general, quantitative advantage does not equal quality or impact advantage. We think that the USA will continue to be the global scientific leader for a long time.