What is the potential for a second peak in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in emerging and developing economies? Insights from a SIRASD model considering the informal economy

TL;DR

This study uses a modified SIRASD model to analyze the risk of a second COVID-19 peak in emerging economies, emphasizing the impact of informal economy populations on compliance with social distancing and the importance of targeted policies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel SIRASD model incorporating socioeconomic factors and informal economy considerations to assess COVID-19 dynamics in developing countries.

Findings

Early lifting of restrictions can lead to a second peak

Informal economy populations are less likely to comply with social distancing

Targeted policies are crucial for effective pandemic control

Abstract

We study the potential scenarios from a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Asymptomatic-Symptomatic-Dead (SIRASD) model. As a novelty, we consider populations that differ in their degree of compliance with social distancing policies following socioeconomic attributes that are observed in emerging and developing countries. Considering epidemiological parameters estimated from data of the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil -- where there is a significant stake of the population making their living in the informal economy and thus prone to not follow self-isolation -- we assert that if the confinement measures are lifted too soon, namely as much as one week of consecutive declining numbers of new cases, it is very likely the appearance of a second peak. Our approach should be valid for any country where the number of people involved in the informal economy is a large proportion of the total labor force. In summary, our results point out the crucial relevance of target policies for supporting people in the informal economy to properly comply with preventive measures during the pandemic.