TL;DR
This paper introduces ICC curves as a simple method for estimating epidemiological parameters, demonstrated by estimating the COVID-19 reproduction ratio.
Contribution
It presents a novel ICC curve-based approach for parameter estimation in basic epidemiological models, applicable to recent outbreaks.
Findings
ICC curves effectively estimate the basic reproduction ratio
Method applied successfully to COVID-19 data
Provides a straightforward framework for epidemiological parameter identification
Abstract
Incidence vs Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed compartments. This novel methodology is used to estimate the basic reproduction ratio of recent outbreaks, including the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic.
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