Social Interaction Layers in Complex Networks for the Dynamical Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19 in Brazil

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multi-layer complex network model to simulate COVID-19 spread in Brazil, revealing that current isolation measures may still risk healthcare overload, and stricter measures could significantly reduce fatalities.

Contribution

It presents a novel multi-layer network approach to model epidemic dynamics, incorporating social activity layers and evaluating intervention impacts on COVID-19 in Brazil.

Findings

Current isolation levels may lead to healthcare system overload.

Returning to normal social activities could cause a steep epidemic increase.

Stricter isolation measures significantly reduce death tolls and healthcare demand.

Abstract

We are currently living in a state of uncertainty due to the pandemic caused by the Sars-CoV-2 virus. There are several factors involved in the epidemic spreading such as the individual characteristics of each city/country. The true shape of the epidemic dynamics is a large, complex system such as most of the social systems. In this context, Complex networks are a great candidate to analyze these systems due to their ability to tackle structural and dynamical properties. Therefore this study presents a new approach to model the COVID-19 epidemic using a multi-layer complex network, where nodes represent people, edges are social contacts, and layers represent different social activities. The model improves the traditional SIR and it is applied to study the Brazilian epidemic by analyzing possible future actions and their consequences. The network is characterized using statistics of infection, death, and hospitalization time. To simulate isolation, social distancing, or precautionary measures we remove layers and/or reduce the intensity of social contacts. Results show that even taking various optimistic assumptions, the current isolation levels in Brazil still may lead to a critical scenario for the healthcare system and a considerable death toll (average of 149,000). If all activities return to normal, the epidemic growth may suffer a steep increase, and the demand for ICU beds may surpass 3 times the country's capacity. This would surely lead to a catastrophic scenario, as our estimation reaches an average of 212,000 deaths even considering that all cases are effectively treated. The increase of isolation (up to a lockdown) shows to be the best option to keep the situation under the healthcare system capacity, aside from ensuring a faster decrease of new case occurrences (months of difference), and a significantly smaller death toll (average of 87,000).