On the Lorenz '96 Model and Some Generalizations

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the Lorenz '96 model, explores its generalizations, and introduces methods to study bifurcations and stability, enhancing understanding of chaotic systems used in weather prediction and data assimilation.

Contribution

It identifies key characteristics of the Lorenz '96 model's advection term, proposes a graphical bifurcation analysis method, and studies extensions with site-dependent forcing and dissipation.

Findings

Characterization of advection term in Lorenz '96

Introduction of graphical bifurcation analysis method

Existence and stability results for model extensions

Abstract

In 1996, Edward Lorenz introduced a system of ordinary differential equations that describes a single scalar quantity as it evolves on a circular array of sites, undergoing forcing, dissipation, and rotation invariant advection. Lorenz constructed the system as a test problem for numerical weather prediction. Since then, the system has also found widespread use as a test case in data assimilation. Mathematically, it belongs to a class of dynamical systems with a single bifurcation parameter (rescaled forcing) that undergoes multiple bifurcations and exhibits chaotic behavior for large forcing. In this paper, the main characteristics of the advection term in the model are identified and used to describe and classify a number of possible generalizations of the system. A graphical method to study the bifurcation behavior of constant solutions is introduced, and it is shown how to use the rotation invariance to compute normal forms of the system analytically. Problems with site-dependent forcing, dissipation, or advection are considered and basic existence and stability results are proved for these extensions. We address some related topics in the appendices, wherein the Lorenz '96 system in Fourier space is considered, explicit solutions for some advection-only systems are found, and it is demonstrated how to use advection-only systems to assess numerical schemes.