The COVID-19 pandemic as experienced by the individual

TL;DR

This study analyzes how population density and cultural factors like individualism influence COVID-19 spread and epidemic size across different countries, highlighting the importance of tailored epidemic control measures.

Contribution

It introduces population-weighted density and cross-cultural individualism measures to explain variations in COVID-19 spread and epidemic size across countries.

Findings

Population-weighted density explains initial spread within Europe.

Hofstede's individualism score correlates with epidemic size globally.

Combined measures account for half the variation in epidemic size across Europe and North America.

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of `population-weighted density', which capture density as perceived by a randomly chosen individual. These measures of population density can significantly explain variation in the initial rate of spread of COVID-19 between countries within Europe. However, such measures do not explain differences on a global scale, particularly when considering countries in East Asia, or looking later into the epidemics. Therefore, to control for country-level differences in response to COVID-19 we consider the cross-cultural measure of individualism proposed by Hofstede. This score can significantly explain variation in the size of epidemics across Europe, North America, and East Asia. Using both our measure of population-weighted density and the Hofstede score we can significantly explain half the variation in the current size of epidemics across Europe and North America. By controlling for country-level responses to the virus and population density, our analysis of the global incidence of COVID-19 can help focus attention on epidemic control measures that are effective for individual countries.