The impact of a nation-wide lockdown on COVID-19 transmissibility in Italy
Giorgio Guzzetta, Flavia Riccardo, Valentina Marziano, Piero Poletti,, Filippo Trentini, Antonino Bella, Xanthi Andrianou, Martina Del Manso,, Massimo Fabiani, Stefania Bellino, Stefano Boros, Alberto Mateo Urdiales,, Maria Fenicia Vescio, Andrea Piccioli, COVID-19 working group
TL;DR
This study evaluates Italy's nationwide COVID-19 lockdown, showing it significantly reduced the virus's transmissibility within two weeks, providing valuable insights for other countries implementing similar measures.
Contribution
It offers a quantitative assessment of the lockdown's impact on COVID-19 transmissibility, highlighting the timeline of effectiveness and informing policy decisions.
Findings
Reproduction number dropped below 1 within 14 days
Lockdown reduced transmissibility to an estimated 0.4-0.7
Provides a timeline of lockdown effectiveness
Abstract
On March 10, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of COVID-19. Here we estimate that, fourteen days after the implementation of the strategy, the net reproduction number has dropped below the epidemic threshold - estimated range 0.4-0.7. Our findings provide a timeline of the effectiveness of the implemented lockdown, which is relevant for a large number of countries that followed Italy in enforcing similar measures.
Peer Reviews
No public reviews on file for this paper yet. If you reviewed it on a platform where reviews are public (OpenReview, ICLR, NeurIPS, ICML), you can paste yours below so the community can read it here.
Videos
No videos yet. Explain this paper in a talk, walkthrough, or lecture? Add one.
Taxonomy
TopicsCOVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · COVID-19 impact on air quality