A fractional-order SEIHDR model for COVID-19 with inter-city networked coupling effects

TL;DR

This paper introduces a fractional-order SEIHDR model incorporating inter-city network effects to analyze COVID-19 dynamics, providing better data fitting and insights into disease spread and control measures.

Contribution

The study develops a novel fractional-order model with inter-city coupling and real data validation, including hospitalization and mortality, enhancing understanding of COVID-19 transmission.

Findings

Fractional-order model fits COVID-19 data better than integer-order.

Inter-city network effects are less significant under lockdown but impact cities without closures.

The basic reproduction number $R_0$ determines disease stability and potential pandemic risk.

Abstract

In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to analyze the dynamic behavior of COVID-19. Based on inter-city networked coupling effects, a fractional-order SEIHDR system with the real-data from 23 January to 18 March, 2020 of COVID-19 is discussed. Meanwhile, hospitalized individuals and the mortality rates of three types of individuals (exposed, infected and hospitalized) are firstly taken into account in the proposed model. And infectivity of individuals during incubation is also considered in this paper. By applying least squares method and predictor-correctors scheme, the numerical solutions of the proposed system in the absence of the inter-city network and with the inter-city network are stimulated by using the real-data from 23 January to $18-m$ March, 2020 where $m$ is equal to the number of prediction days. Compared with integer-order system ($\alpha=0$), the fractional-order model without network is validated to have a better fitting of the data on Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Huanggang and other cities. In contrast to the case without network, the results indicate that the inter-city network system may be not a significant case to virus spreading for China because of the lock down and quarantine measures, however, it may have an impact on cities that have not adopted city closure. Meanwhile, the proposed model better fits the data from 24 February to 31, March in Italy, and the peak number of confirmed people is also predicted by this fraction-order model. Furthermore, the existence and uniqueness of a bounded solution under the initial condition are considered in the proposed system. Afterwards, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is analyzed and it is found to hold a threshold: the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when $R_0\le 1$, which provides a theoretical basis for whether COVID-19 will become a pandemic in the future.