Practical calibration of the temperature parameter in Gibbs posteriors

TL;DR

This paper introduces fast, data-driven methods for tuning the temperature parameter in Gibbs posteriors, improving robustness and scalability in complex models with model misspecification.

Contribution

It proposes two novel methods for calibrating alpha, compatible with both exact and variational posteriors, and demonstrates their effectiveness over existing approaches.

Findings

Sample-splitting outperforms SafeBayes in speed

Methods improve inference in misspecified models

Sample-splitting and SafeBayes outperform standard Bayes

Abstract

PAC-Bayesian algorithms and Gibbs posteriors are gaining popularity due to their robustness against model misspecification even when Bayesian inference is inconsistent. The PAC-Bayesian alpha-posterior is a generalization of the standard Bayes posterior which can be tempered with a parameter alpha to handle inconsistency. Data driven methods for tuning alpha have been proposed but are still few, and are often computationally heavy. Additionally, the adequacy of these methods in cases where we use variational approximations instead of exact alpha-posteriors is not clear. This narrows their usage to simple models and prevents their application to large-scale problems. We hence need fast methods to tune alpha that work with both exact and variational alpha-posteriors. First, we propose two data driven methods for tuning alpha, based on sample-splitting and bootstrapping respectively. Second, we formulate the (exact or variational) posteriors of three popular statistical models, and modify them into alpha-posteriors. For each model, we test our strategies and compare them with standard Bayes and Grunwald's SafeBayes. While bootstrapping achieves mixed results, sample-splitting and SafeBayes perform well on the exact and variational alpha-posteriors we describe, and achieve better results than standard Bayes in misspecified or complex models. Additionally, sample-splitting outperforms SafeBayes in terms of speed. Sample-splitting offers a fast and easy solution to inconsistency and typically performs similarly or better than Bayesian inference. Our results provide hints on the calibration of alpha in PAC-Bayesian and Gibbs posteriors, and may facilitate using these methods in large and complex models.