Estimaci\'on del n\'umero de reproducci\'on de la epidemia COVID-19 en Culiac\'an Sinaloa, M\'exico

TL;DR

This study estimates the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in Culiacán, Sinaloa, Mexico, finding it to be approximately 1.56, and reports a 16.8% mortality rate among confirmed cases.

Contribution

It provides a localized estimate of R0 and mortality rate for COVID-19 in Culiacán, using publicly available data, which was not previously documented.

Findings

Estimated R0 is 1.562 with 95% CI (1.401, 1.742).

Mortality rate among confirmed cases is 16.8%.

Data sourced from the Sinaloa Health Department.

Abstract

Currently the COVID-19 epidemic is developing in the City of Culiac\'n Sinaloa, Mexico, where up to April 20 of this year there have been 35 deaths associated with this epidemic. The reproduction number $(R_0)$ of an epidemic represents the average number of people infected by an infected person during their period of infection. In this work we use the data published by the Secretary of Health of the State of Sinaloa on the number of new infected cases confirmed per day and we estimate that the value of $R_0$ is 1.562 with a 95% confidence interval given by (1.401,1.742). We also estimate the mortality rate among the confirmed cases, which turned out to be 16.8%. - - - - - Actualmente la epidemia COVID-19 se est\'a desarrollando en la Ciudad de Culiac\'an Sinaloa, M\'exico, donde hasta el 20 de abril del presente a\~no han ocurrido 35 decesos asociados con esta epidemia. El n\'umero de reproducci\'on $(R_0)$ de una epidemia representa el n\'umero promedio de personas contagiadas por una persona infectada durante su periodo de infecci\'on. En este trabajo usamos los datos publicados por la Secretaria de Salud del Estado de Sinaloa sobre el n\'umero de nuevos casos infectados confirmados por dia y estimamos que el valor de $R_0$ es de 1.562 con un intervalo del 95% de confianza dado por (1.401,1.742). Estimamos tambi\'en la tasa de mortalidad entre los casos confirmados, la cual result\'o ser de 16.8%.