The comparison of trends in Spain and the Nederland: a Dynamical compartment model of the transmission of Coronavirus

TL;DR

This paper presents a dynamical compartmental model based on SIR, Flow network, and Markov chain frameworks to compare COVID-19 transmission trends in Spain and the Netherlands, highlighting the importance of ongoing measures.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel combined modeling approach integrating SIR, Flow network, and Markov chain frameworks to analyze COVID-19 trends using publicly available data.

Findings

Peak infection has passed in both countries

Potential for future rebound of the virus

Current measures are effective but immunity remains low

Abstract

The recent spreading of coronavirus made many countries impose restrictions in order to control its dangerous effect on the citizens. We developed a theoretical dynamical model based on compartmental SIR system with additional adjustment taken from Flow network and Markov chain frameworks to illustrate developments and trends based on publicly available data. Based on this Model, code in R was written and fed by stamped publicly available data from authorized governmental websites in Spain and in the Nederlands, to compare trends. Our results show that the 'peak' of infection is already behind us in both countries, but also demonstrate that there is a danger of rebound of a spread. It is obvious that measures imposed are giving the results, but we should be precarious of near future practices and developments since the majority of population will still be without immunity.