Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA based time-series analysis to forecast near future

TL;DR

This paper uses ARIMA time-series analysis to forecast future COVID-19 cases in India, providing insights to aid healthcare preparedness amid the pandemic.

Contribution

It develops an ARIMA-based model specifically for COVID-19 case prediction in India, offering a practical tool for future planning.

Findings

Forecasted an increasing trend in COVID-19 cases in India.

Identified an exponential growth pattern in case numbers.

Predictions aim to assist healthcare system readiness.

Abstract

COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future infected cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the healthcare service preparation. Following that notion, we have developed a model and then employed it for forecasting future COVID-19 cases in India. The study indicates an ascending trend for the cases in the coming days. A time series analysis also presents an exponential increase in the number of cases. It is supposed that the present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel to be prepared for the upcoming conditions and have more readiness in healthcare systems.