A time-dependent SEIR model to analyse the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in Portugal

TL;DR

This study employs a time-dependent SEIR model to analyze and predict the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory in Portugal, providing insights into peak cases and healthcare resource needs under mitigation measures.

Contribution

The paper introduces a dynamic SEIR model with parameters updated every five days to accurately simulate the epidemic's evolution in Portugal.

Findings

Estimated peak of 22,000 active cases.

Hospitalization peak around 1,250 cases.

Approximately 200-300 ICU cases at peak.

Abstract

Background: The analysis of the Sars-CoV-2 epidemic is of paramount importance to understand the dynamics of the coronavirus spread. This can help health and government authorities take the appropriate measures and implement suitable politics aimed at fighting and preventing it. Methods: A time-dependent dynamic SEIR model inspired in a model previously used during the MERS outbreak in South Korea was used to analyse the time trajectories of active and hospitalized cases in Portugal. Results: The time evolution of the virus spread in the country was adequately modelled. The model has changeable parameters every five days since the onset of mitigation measures. A peak of about 22,000 active cases is estimated, although the official value for recovered cases is out of date. Hospitalized cases could reach a peak of about 1,250 cases, of which 200/300 in ICU units. Conclusion: With appropriate measures, the number of active cases in Portugal can be controlled at about 22,000 people, of which about 1,250 hospitalized and 200/300 in ICU units. This seems manageable by the country national health service with an estimated 1,140 ventilators.