The impact of multilateral imported cases of COVID-19 on the epidemic control in China

TL;DR

This paper models the impact of multilateral imported COVID-19 cases on China's epidemic control using impulsive systems, analyzing different strategies to inform effective policies for preventing outbreaks.

Contribution

It introduces two impulsive system models to simulate imported case impacts and compares control strategies based on epidemic trends and medical burden.

Findings

Different control strategies significantly affect epidemic outcomes.

Simulation results guide optimal imported case management.

Medical burden varies with implemented control measures.

Abstract

Nowadays, the epidemic of COVID-19 in China is under control. However, the epidemic are developing rapidly around the world. Due to the normal migration of population, China is facing high risk from imported cases. The potential specific medicine and vaccine is still in the process of clinical trials. Currently, controlling the impact of imported cases is the key to prevent new outbreak of COVID-19 in China. In this paper, we propose two impulsive systems to describe the impact of multilateral imported cases of COVID-19. Based on the published data, we simulate and discussed the epidemic trends under different control strategies. We compare four different scenarios and show the corresponding medical burden. The results help to design appropriate control strategy for imported cases in practice.