Model studies on the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden

TL;DR

This paper analyzes COVID-19 infection and death dynamics in Sweden using SI, SIR, and SID models, highlighting the importance of early intervention due to projected death tolls.

Contribution

It compares multiple epidemiological models to understand COVID-19 spread and mortality in Sweden, emphasizing the critical period for future death predictions.

Findings

All models fit infection data well.

SI and SID models project high death tolls.

Early intervention is crucial for controlling deaths.

Abstract

We study the increases of infections and deaths in Sweden caused by COVID-19 with several different models: Firstly an analytical susceptible-infected (SI) model and the standard susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Then within the SIR framework we study the susceptible-infected-deceased (SID) correlations. All models reproduce well the number of infected cases and give similar predictions. What causes us deep concern is the large number of deaths projected by the SI and SID models. Our analysis shows that, irrespective of the possible uncertainty of our model prediction, the next few days can be critical for determining the future evolution of the death cases (Updated April 02).