Different scenarios in the Dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 Infection: an adapted ODE model

TL;DR

This paper enhances an existing SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to evaluate how different containment strategies like isolation and quarantine affect the pandemic's progression, with a case study on Brazil's early infection dynamics.

Contribution

It introduces an adapted ODE model to analyze the impact of containment measures on COVID-19 spread, providing scenario comparisons and R0 estimates for each case.

Findings

Containment measures significantly alter infection trajectories.

Estimated R0 values ranged from 4.04 to 1.12 across scenarios.

The model highlights the importance of early intervention.

Abstract

A mathematical model to calculate the transmissibility of SARS-Cov-2 in Wuhan City was developed and published recently by Tian-Mu Chen et al., Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3. This paper improves this model in order to study the effect of different scenarios that include actions to contain the pandemic, such as isolation and quarantine of infected and at-risk people. Comparisons made between the different scenarios show that the progress of the infection is found to strongly depend on measures taken in each case. The particular case of Brazil was studied, showing the dynamics of the first days of the infection in comparison with the different scenarios contained in the model and the reality of the Brazilian health system was exposed, in front of each possible scenario. The relative evolution of the number of new infection and reported cases was employed to estimate a containment date of the pandemic. Finally, the basic reproduction number R0 values were estimated for each scenario, ranging from 4.04 to 1.12.