Covid-19: Data analysis of the Lombardy region and the provinces of Bergamo and Brescia

TL;DR

This study analyzes COVID-19 death data in Lombardy, Italy, revealing biases and the impact of containment measures, predicting a reduction in deaths due to government interventions.

Contribution

It provides a detailed data analysis of COVID-19 trends in Lombardy, accounting for data biases and assessing the effects of containment measures.

Findings

Data bias linked to March 10th event and reporting changes.

Containment measures reduced the epidemic's growth rate.

Predicted decrease in deaths from 8000 to over 6500 by March 27.

Abstract

The data analysis on deaths in the Lombardy Region and of both the provinces of Bergamo and Brescia shows a twofold aspect on the trend of the epidemic: - all the data show a bias linked to the event of March 10th (day for which the Lombardy region data is partial) and the subsequent change in the way in which positive cases and deaths are calculated; - following the containment measures of the Prime Minister's Decree of March 11th, the spread of the epidemic, although still exponential in nature, has a reduced multiplication coefficient. Our analysis concludes that the situation is not yet compatible with a plateau trend and allows us to predict the trend in the number of deaths in the Lombardy region. We therefore conclude that the containment measures put in place by the government on March 11th will allow a reduction in deaths from around 8000 to just over 6500 for March 27th.