Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 spread in Italy with an adaptive SEIRD model

TL;DR

This paper introduces an adaptive SEIRD model with a time-dependent transmission rate to analyze and forecast COVID-19 spread in Italian regions, accounting for government-imposed restrictions and providing region-specific insights.

Contribution

It presents a modified SEIRD model incorporating a time-dependent transmission rate to better capture the effects of restrictions on COVID-19 spread in Italy.

Findings

Maximum infection spread identified in Lombardia, Veneto, Emilia Romagna

Model successfully captures impact of restrictions on transmission rates

Framework extendable to other regions with more data

Abstract

In this paper we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) differential model for the analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 spread in some regions of Italy, using the data from the Italian Protezione Civile from February 24th 2020. In this study investigate an adaptation of the model. Since several restricting measures have been imposed by the Italian government at different times, starting from March 8th 2020, we propose a modification of SEIRD by introducing a time dependent transmitting rate. In the numerical results we report the maximum infection spread for the three Italian regions firstly affected by the COVID-19 outbreak(Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia Romagna). This approach will be successively extended to other Italian regions, as soon as more data will be available.