Neural Network aided quarantine control model estimation of COVID spread in Wuhan, China

TL;DR

This study uses a neural network-enhanced epidemiological model to evaluate the effectiveness of Wuhan's quarantine measures in reducing COVID-19 spread, showing that strict controls significantly lowered the reproduction number and halted the epidemic.

Contribution

It introduces a novel machine learning-augmented epidemiological model to assess quarantine effectiveness in real-time COVID-19 spread analysis.

Findings

Quarantine measures reduced R(t) from above 1 to below 1 within a month.

The model predicts a stagnation in infection spread if measures are maintained.

Relaxing quarantine prematurely could lead to resurgence of COVID-19.

Abstract

In a move described as unprecedented in public health history, starting 24 January 2020, China imposed quarantine and isolation restrictions in Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. This raised the question: is mass quarantine and isolation effective as a social tool in addition to its scientific use as a medical tool? In an effort to address this question, using a epidemiological model driven approach augmented by machine learning, we show that the quarantine and isolation measures implemented in Wuhan brought down the effective reproduction number R(t) of the CoVID-19 spread from R(t) > 1 to R(t) <1 within a month after the imposition of quarantine control measures in Wuhan, China. This ultimately resulted in a stagnation phase in the infected case count in Wuhan. Our results indicate that the strict public health policies implemented in Wuhan may have played a crucial role in halting down the spread of infection and such measures should potentially be implemented in other highly affected countries such as South Korea, Italy and Iran to curtail spread of the disease. Finally, our forecasting results predict a stagnation in the quarantine control measures implemented in Wuhan towards the end of March 2020; this would lead to a subsequent stagnation in the effective reproduction number at R(t) <1. We warn that immediate relaxation of the quarantine measures in Wuhan may lead to a relapse in the infection spread and a subsequent increase in the effective reproduction number to R(t) >1. Thus, it may be wise to relax quarantine measures after sufficient time has elapsed, during which maximum of the quarantined/isolated individuals are recovered.