SocialGrid: A TCN-enhanced Method for Online Discussion Forecasting

TL;DR

SocialGrid is a novel framework that models online discussion events using a grid transformation and TCNs to accurately forecast future event timings across different granularities, validated on Reddit data.

Contribution

It introduces a grid-based event modeling approach combined with TCNs for online discussion forecasting, offering improved prediction accuracy over existing methods.

Findings

Outperforms other approaches in cascade prediction tasks

Effective in predicting event arrival times at multiple granularities

Validated on real-world Reddit data

Abstract

As a means of modern communication tools, online discussion forums have become an increasingly popular platform that allows asynchronous online interactions. People share thoughts and opinions through posting threads and replies, which form a unique communication structure between main threads and associated replies. It is significant to understand the information diffusion pattern under such a communication structure, where an essential task is to predict the arrival time of future events. In this work, we proposed a novel yet simple framework, called SocialGrid, for modeling events in online discussing forms. Our framework first transforms the entire event space into a grid representation by grouping successive evens in one time interval of a particular length. Based on the nature of the grid, we leverage the Temporal Convolution Network to learn the dynamics at the grid level. Varying the temporal scope of an individual grid, the learned grid model can be used to predict the arrival time of future events at different granularities. Leveraging the Reddit data, we validate the proposed method through experiments on a series of applications. Extensive experiments and a real-world application. Results have shown that our framework excels at various cascade prediction tasks comparing with other approaches.