Degrees of displacement: The impact of household PV battery prosumage on utility generation and storage

TL;DR

This study analyzes how increased household PV and battery prosumage in Western Australia by 2030 will influence utility generation, storage, and wholesale electricity prices, highlighting sector-wide implications.

Contribution

It provides a detailed techno-economic analysis of household prosumage impacts on utility-scale generation, storage, and prices using open-source models for 2030 scenarios.

Findings

Household PV largely substitutes utility PV but less so with more batteries.

Wind power remains relatively unaffected by household prosumage.

Utility battery capacities are minimally impacted when households maximize self-consumption.

Abstract

Reductions in the cost of PV and batteries encourage households to invest in PV battery prosumage. We explore the implications for the rest of the power sector by applying two open-source techno-economic models to scenarios in Western Australia for the year 2030. Household PV capacity generally substitutes utility PV, but slightly less so as additional household batteries are installed. Wind power is less affected, especially in scenarios with higher shares of renewables. With household batteries operating to maximise self-consumption, utility battery capacities are hardly substituted. Wholesale prices to supply households, including those not engaging in prosumage, slightly decrease, while prices for other consumers slightly increase. We conclude that the growth of prosumage has implications on the various elements of the power sector and should be more thoroughly considered by investors, regulators, and power sector planners.