A knowledge-based model of civilization under climate change

TL;DR

This paper presents a macro-model of civilization that links knowledge production to population, energy use, and climate change, revealing critical thresholds that determine civilization's stability or collapse.

Contribution

It introduces a dynamic, calibrated model incorporating knowledge loss and energy dissipation, identifying key parameters that influence civilization's future stability.

Findings

Civilization is on the edge of stability, sensitive to small parameter changes.

Two control parameters determine whether civilization persists or collapses.

Small deviations can lead to either sustainable growth or extinction.

Abstract

Civilization produces knowledge, which acts as the driving force of its development. A macro-model of civilization that accounts for the effect of knowledge production on population, energy consumption and environmental conditions is developed. The model includes dynamic equations for world population, amount of knowledge circulating in civilization, the share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and global mean surface temperature. Energy dissipation in knowledge production and direct loss of knowledge are taken into account. The model is calibrated using historical data for each variable. About 90 scenarios were calculated. It was shown that there are two control parameters - sensitivity of the population to temperature rise and coefficient of knowledge loss - which determine the future of civilization. In the two-dimensional space of these parameters, there is an area of sustainable development and an area of loss of stability. Calculations show that civilization is located just on the critical curve separating these areas, that is, at the edge of stability. A small deviation can ultimately lead either to a steady state of 10+ billion people or to the complete extinction of civilization. There are no intermediate steady states.