The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

TL;DR

This study provides updated estimates of the contagiousness of 2019-nCoV, showing it is more infectious than initially thought, with a higher R0, and emphasizes the need for early, strong control measures.

Contribution

The paper offers new, more accurate estimates of the virus's R0 and incubation period using extensive data and modeling, highlighting increased contagiousness.

Findings

R0 estimated between 4.7 and 6.6, higher than initial estimates

Infected individuals double every 2.4 days during early epidemic

Quarantine alone may be insufficient without early, strong interventions

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.