How Many Simulations Do We Exist In? A Practical Mathematical Solution to the Simulation Argument

TL;DR

This paper provides a practical mathematical approach to evaluate the Simulation Argument, using real-world data to estimate the number of possible simulations we might exist in, challenging previous probabilistic claims.

Contribution

It introduces a tangible, numerical method to assess the Simulation Hypothesis, offering a new way to evaluate the likelihood of our existence within a simulation.

Findings

Calculated a smaller number of possible simulations using real-world evidence

Provided a novel practical approach to evaluate the Simulation Argument

Challenged previous probabilistic estimates with tangible data

Abstract

The Simulation Argument has gained significant traction in the public arena. It has offered a hypothesis based on probabilistic analysis of its assumptions that we are likely to exist within a computer simulation. This has been derived from factors including the prediction of computing power, human existence, extinction and population dynamics, and suggests a very large value for the number of possible simulations within which we may exist. On evaluating this argument through the application of tangible real-world evidence and projections, it is possible to calculate real numerical solutions for the Simulation Argument. This reveals a much smaller number of possible simulations within which we may exist, and offers a novel practicable approach in which to appraise the variety and multitude of conjectures and theories associated with the Simulation Hypothesis.