Gasoline Pricing Policies for Transportation Safety

TL;DR

This study investigates how retail gasoline prices influence transportation fatal crashes in the US from 2007 to 2016, revealing that higher prices significantly increase motorcycle fatalities but have minimal effects on other crash types.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive analysis using random effect negative binomial regression models to evaluate gasoline price impacts on various transportation crash categories, considering gender and vehicle type.

Findings

A $1 increase in gasoline price correlates with a 24.2% rise in motorcycle fatalities.

Higher gasoline prices slightly decrease non-motorcycle and pedestrian fatalities.

No significant gender differences in crash responses to gasoline price changes.

Abstract

Economic factors can have substantial effects on transportation crash trends. This study makes a comprehensive examination of the relationship between the retail gasoline price (including state and federal fuel taxes) and transportation fatal crashes from 2007 to 2016 in the US. Data on motor vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian fatal crashes come from Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) provided by the National Highway Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the gasoline price data is from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Random effect negative binomial regression models are used to estimate the impact of inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on trends of transportation fatal crashes. Initial results combined with results of previous studies showed that gender and transportation mean type (motorcycle, non-motorcycle, bicycle and pedestrian) play prominent roles in interpreting the final model, so by using random effect negative binomial regression, seven models are developed to evaluate the effects of gasoline price changes on total population, male, female, motorcyclists, non-motorcyclists, bicyclists and pedestrians separately. Our findings suggest that increasing the gasoline prices will not significantly alter the number of total fatal crashes. However, by looking at different vehicle types, it is estimated that one dollar increase in adjusted gasoline price is associated with 24.2% increase in the number of motorcycle fatal crashes, 1.9% decrease in the number of non-motorcycle fatal crashes, and 0.7% decrease in the number of pedestrian fatal crashes. Also, there is no noticeable difference between male and female in response to the gasoline price changes.