Forecasting Bitcoin closing price series using linear regression and neural networks models

TL;DR

This study compares statistical and machine learning models, including neural networks, for forecasting Bitcoin prices, demonstrating their effectiveness over benchmarks and confirming the importance of regime-based analysis.

Contribution

It introduces a regime-based approach using multiple previous prices and compares various models, including neural networks, for Bitcoin price forecasting.

Findings

Models performed well with low error metrics.

Regime-based models outperformed simpler approaches.

Neural networks like LSTM showed promising results.

Abstract

This paper studies how to forecast daily closing price series of Bitcoin, using data on prices and volumes of prior days. Bitcoin price behaviour is still largely unexplored, presenting new opportunities. We compared our results with two modern works on Bitcoin prices forecasting and with a well-known recent paper that uses Intel, National Bank shares and Microsoft daily NASDAQ closing prices spanning a 3-year interval. We followed different approaches in parallel, implementing both statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms. The SLR model for univariate series forecast uses only closing prices, whereas the MLR model for multivariate series uses both price and volume data. We applied the ADF -Test to these series, which resulted to be indistinguishable from a random walk. We also used two artificial neural networks: MLP and LSTM. We then partitioned the dataset into shorter sequences, representing different price regimes, obtaining best result using more than one previous price, thus confirming our regime hypothesis. All the models were evaluated in terms of MAPE and relativeRMSE. They performed well, and were overall better than those obtained in the benchmarks. Based on the results, it was possible to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology and its contribution to the state-of-the-art.