The Temporal Dynamics of Belief-based Updating of Epistemic Trust: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

TL;DR

This paper examines Bayesian models of belief and trust updating, focusing on a prominent model by Olsson, and presents new simulation results that suggest communication may improve trust dynamics, offering cautious optimism for belief-based trust models.

Contribution

The paper analyzes the limitations of existing belief-based trust models and introduces new simulation results highlighting the potential benefits of communication in trust updating.

Findings

Communication improves trust updating dynamics.

Belief-based models face challenges but may be salvaged with communication.

Simulation results offer cautious optimism for belief-based trust models.

Abstract

We start with the distinction of outcome- and belief-based Bayesian models of the sequential update of agents' beliefs and subjective reliability of sources (trust). We then focus on discussing the influential Bayesian model of belief-based trust update by Eric Olsson, which models dichotomic events and explicitly represents anti-reliability. After sketching some disastrous recent results for this perhaps most promising model of belief update, we show new simulation results for the temporal dynamics of learning belief with and without trust update and with and without communication. The results seem to shed at least a somewhat more positive light on the communicating-and-trust-updating agents. This may be a light at the end of the tunnel of belief-based models of trust updating, but the interpretation of the clear findings is much less clear.