The nitrogen operating space of world food production

TL;DR

This paper defines the nitrogen operating space for global food production, analyzing how nitrogen use efficiency and planetary boundaries constrain maximum human population supportable by agriculture.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of the nitrogen operating space, integrating food production boundaries, nitrogen loss, and self-sufficiency to assess global sustainability limits.

Findings

Maximum supportable population ranges from 6 to 17 billion.

Current UN projections are only conditionally achievable.

Growth rate and efficiency improvements are needed to meet 2050 targets.

Abstract

Agriculture operates within a global ecosystem for which planetary boundaries have recently been defined. Efficiency in nitrogen use is essential for maximizing the benefits of agriculture for humanity and minimizing adverse socio-ecological impacts. The set of variables that support global system efficiency also determine the food production boundaries of agriculture, which govern the maximum supportable human population. Food production boundaries, nitrogen loss and nitrogen self-sufficiency are combined here into the nitrogen operating space of world food production. We position world regions and the world trajectory (1961-2013) within the nitrogen operating space and show that the maximum supportable human population ranges from 6 to almost 17 billion people according to the share of grain used as feed and the nitrogen fertilization regime. All UN population projections for the 21st century can only be conditionally achieved. We discuss the growth rate requirements in production and efficiency to meet food production boundaries and the nitrogen planetary boundary by 2050.