Predicting one type of technological motion? A nonlinear map to study the 'sailing-ship' effect

TL;DR

This paper models the competitive dynamics between old and new technologies using a nonlinear map, analyzing how improvements driven by technological and economic factors influence market dominance in a duopolistic setting.

Contribution

It introduces a nonlinear map model to simulate the 'sailing-ship' effect, integrating technological and economic parameters to predict technological dominance outcomes.

Findings

Different parameter values lead to various dominance scenarios.

Technological improvements can either reinforce or reverse market dominance.

The model captures complex interactions influencing technology adoption.

Abstract

In this work we use a proven model to study a dynamic duopolistic competition between an old and a new technology which, through improved technical performance - e.g. data transmission capacity - fight in order to conquer market share. The process whereby an old technology fights a new one off through own improvements has been named 'sailing-ship effect'. In the simulations proposed, intentional improvements of both the old and the new technology are affected by the values of three key parameters: one scientific-technological, one purely technological and the third purely economic. The interaction between these components gives rise to different outcomes in terms of prevalence of one technology over the other.