Ready for what lies ahead? -- Gravitational waveform accuracy requirements for future ground based detectors

TL;DR

Future third-generation ground-based gravitational wave detectors will require highly accurate waveform models, significantly improving current models to avoid biases and false signals in astrophysical and fundamental physics analyses.

Contribution

This paper assesses the accuracy requirements for gravitational waveform models for upcoming 3G detectors and highlights the need for substantial improvements in model precision and computational efficiency.

Findings

Mismatch errors must be reduced by at least three orders of magnitude for semi-analytical models.

Biases in parameter estimation can be 10-30 times larger than credible intervals for large populations.

Residual signals can mimic deviations from general relativity, affecting fundamental physics tests.

Abstract

Future third generation (3G) ground-based GW detectors, such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer, will have unprecedented sensitivities enabling studies of the entire population of stellar mass binary black hole coalescences in the Universe. To infer binary parameters from a GW signal we require accurate models of the gravitational waveform as a function of black hole masses, spins, etc. Such waveform models are built from numerical relativity (NR) simulations and/or semi-analytical expressions in the inspiral. We investigate the limits of the current waveform models and study at what detector sensitivity these models will yield unbiased parameter inference for loud ''golden'' binary black hole systems, what biases we can expect beyond these limits, and what implications such biases will have for GW astrophysics. For 3G detectors we find that the mismatch error for semi-analytical models needs to be reduced by at least \emph{three orders of magnitude} and for NR waveforms by \emph{one order of magnitude}. In addition, we show that for a population of one hundred high mass precessing binary black holes, measurement errors sum up to a sizable population bias, about 10 -- 30 times larger than the sum of 90\% credible intervals for key astrophysical parameters. Furthermore we demonstrate that the residual signal between the GW data recorded by a detector and the best fit template waveform obtained by parameter inference analyses can have significant SNR ratio. This coherent power left in the residual could lead to the observation of erroneous deviations from general relativity. To address these issues and be ready to reap the scientific benefits of 3G GW detectors in the 2030s, waveform models that are significantly more physically complete and accurate need to be developed in the next decade along with major advances in efficiency and accuracy of NR codes.