Time-based analysis of the NBA hot hand fallacy

TL;DR

This paper investigates the hot hand phenomenon in NBA basketball by analyzing shot sequences over two years, emphasizing the importance of timing between shots and showing that streaks are not sustained across years.

Contribution

It provides a detailed time-based analysis of the hot hand, highlighting the significance of shot timing and the lack of multi-year streak persistence.

Findings

Shot timing significantly affects hot hand evidence

Players do not maintain streaks across multiple years

Sequential shot outcomes are influenced by time intervals

Abstract

The debate surrounding the hot hand in the NBA has been ongoing for many years. However, many of the previous works on this theme has focused on only the very next sequential shot attempt, often on very select players. This work looks in more detail the effect of a made or missed shot on the next series of shots over a two-year span, with time between shots shown to be a critical factor in the analysis. Also, multi-year streakiness is analyzed, and all indications are that players cannot really sustain their good (or bad) fortune from year to year.