US Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Absence of Federal Climate Policy

TL;DR

This study models US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions without federal policy, showing emissions are likely to stay flat or decline modestly, influenced by fuel prices, technology costs, and market forces.

Contribution

It provides a model-based analysis of US emissions trajectory considering fuel prices, technology costs, and market dynamics without new federal climate policies.

Findings

Emissions could range from +10% to -23% of baseline by 2040.

Natural gas vs. coal tradeoff significantly impacts emissions.

Lower emissions are linked to declining natural gas and electric vehicle costs.

Abstract

The planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as well as uncertainty about federal climate policy have raised questions about the country's future emissions trajectory. Our model-based analysis accounts for uncertainty in fuel prices and energy technology capital costs and suggests that market forces are likely to keep US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions relatively flat or produce modest reductions: in the absence of new federal policy, 2040 greenhouse gas emissions range from +10% to -23% of the baseline estimate. Natural gas versus coal utilization in the electric sector represents a key tradeoff, particularly under conservative assumptions about future technology innovation. The lowest emissions scenarios are produced when the cost of natural gas and electric vehicles decline while coal and oil prices increase relative to the baseline.